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Thu 27 Feb 12:30: Strategic competition and donor interests: An econometric approach to the market for the allocation of climate development aid for renewable energy projects
The transition to decarbonised economies is essential for economic development in developing economies and it opens venues for developed countries to think strategically about energy and foreign policy in a changing geopolitical context in which energy security and climate targets need to go hand in hand. Analysing how bilateral aid for renewable energy projects is allocated is crucial to understand if donor countries prioritize social and environmental goals or if their motives are less altruistic and focused on their own economic and strategic benefits in the context of the geopolitics of the energy transition and therefore, if they favour targeted development. To examine how official development aid for renewable energy projects (RE ODA ) is allocated across countries we pay attention to donor and recipient characteristics and interactions but also to donor-donor strategic relationships. We use an estimation strategy that combines quantitative social network analysis and panel data models (pplmhdfe, Heckman selection and an IV strategy) to examine the technical, economic or geopolitical motives determining the allocation of bilateral aid for projects on non-emitting energy sources from 2009 to 2018 with OECD -CRS data. Using the degree centrality of the recipient, the Herfindahl index and the market share of the donors’ RE ODA on the recipients to measure the concentration of RE ODA and, therefore, the importance of a donor within the recipient’s network, we analyse the motivations behind the strategic donations of countries. We find that both political and strategic trade interests connected to the access to critical minerals, energy resources and policy drivers are factors affecting the targeted provision of ODA for low-and-middle income countries while, generally, recipients’ needs are not relevant factors driving the reception of RE ODA .
- Speaker: Cristina Penasco Paton (Banque de France)
- Thursday 27 February 2025, 12:30-13:30
- Venue: W2.02, CJBS.
- Series: CERF and CF Events; organiser: Cerf Admin.
Thu 13 Mar 13:00: Measuring the Informativeness of Audit Reports: A Machine Learning Approach
This paper studies the informational value of audit reports using computational linguistic tools based on FinBERT, a cutting-edge large language model (LLM) designed for financial texts. We analyze the topics within audit reports and classify them into 41 labels, organized into standard and expanded components. The standard components contain boilerplate language on audit scope, opinion, and basis for opinion. In contrast, the expanded components contain explanatory language, audit matters, and discussions of audit procedures that reflect auditor judgment. Contrary to the perception that audit reports lack informational value, we find that changes from the addition of new sentences in the expanded components carry strong implications for the client firms’ future performance and misstatement risk. Firms with larger changes in the expanded components exhibit poorer future returns, less persistent operating performance, and a higher likelihood of future financial restatements. These changes trigger investor trading, reducing bid-ask spreads around the audit report releases. Both regulatory influences and litigation pressures drive these changes, underscoring the role of both public and private oversight in enhancing audit report informativeness.
- Speaker: Reining Petacchi (Georgetown)
- Thursday 13 March 2025, 13:00-14:00
- Venue: Castle Teaching Room, CJBS.
- Series: CERF and CF Events; organiser: Cerf Admin.
Thu 13 Feb 12:30: Title to be confirmed
Abstract not available
- Speaker: Manju Puri (Duke)
- Thursday 13 February 2025, 12:30-13:30
- Venue: W2.02, CJBS.
- Series: CERF and CF Events; organiser: Cerf Admin.
Thu 30 Jan 12:30: Strategic Disclosure with Fake and Real News
We develop a model in which information about a rm’s value can be obtained from two sources: (i) voluntary disclosure by a rm’s manager, if she is informed, and (ii) an exogenous source – news – with uncertain accuracy, i.e., who may be real or fake. We focus on the case where the accuracy of the news is positively correlated with the manager’s information endowment, and the manager makes the disclosure decision without knowing the news. In contrast to the existing theoretical literature, our model does not admit a pure-strategy disclosure equilibrium. Instead, the equilibrium is characterized by two thresholds: an informed manager never discloses values below the lower threshold, always discloses values above the higher threshold, and employs a mixed strategy with a monotonically increasing probability of disclosure for values between the two thresholds. We show that the presence of news crowds out managerial disclosure.
- Speaker: Ilan Guttman (NYU Stern0
- Thursday 30 January 2025, 12:30-13:30
- Venue: W2.01, CJBS.
- Series: CERF and CF Events; organiser: Cerf Admin.